In our project we did:
A fictional exponential graph of an infectious disease. Each day we have the double of infected people, and in the graph we can see that from the 8th day the infected curve starts to increase really fast. Within this data we could be able to calculate the R factor, that our France coworkers are going to explain.
The R factor is a mathematical term used to indicate how contagious a disease is. It is also called the reproduction number. When it is just the letter R, then it is the reproductive number at a given time and it changes over time. But there is aso R0 “R naught”, it’s the basic reproduction number, it tells us the number of people infected by one person.
When we have an exponential curve about the evolution of infected people or a table of data with the evolution, it is possible to determine the R0 with formulas.
If the R0 is less than 1, then the number of infected people declines, if it is equal to 1; then the number of infected people stays the same and if it is greater than one, the number of infected people will increase.
To analyze the exponential growth of a virus, we can also use the growth rate r. This factor is linked to the reproduction number and it measures the rate at which new cases of infected people are arising. It can also be determined with a formula : y=C(1+R)t , C is the initial amount, r the growth rate and t is the time period.
To conclude, there are a few factors that can be helpful when you want to analyze the spread of a virus.
We all found the data of the contagions related to our countries.
Respectively we present the data of Spain, France and Italy;
According to coronavirus statistics the infected in Spain are 3.604.799 and the dead are 80.000. The infected in France are 5.925.071 and the dead are 107.696. And finally the infected in Italy are 4.159.122 and 124.156 deaths.
The important factors of the R0 factor can be lowered with contact tracing. Contact tracing is a method to track down the contacts of the people with confirmed infections. Then, the contacts should be quarantined to prevent an increase of the exponential growth of the disease.
In general we can say that contact tracing can be considered a fast testing campaign.
But to contain the spread of the virus we should take other measures, like social distancing and wearing masks, because studies have shown that these measures could lower the R0.
The government can also decide to use drastic and national measures like lockdowns, curfews, vaccination campaigns and others.
Taking into account all the things we investigated, we have concluded that to contain the spread of the virus, we must wear face masks, respect the social distance and make a mass vaccination of society. We’ve been able to learn about how virus infections work and we’ve learned to work as a team remotely, although communication between countries has been a bit weak.